Are you seeing Poipu listings fly off the market one month and linger the next? In a resort market like Koloa’s South Shore, small data samples and seasonal demand can make the numbers feel confusing. You deserve a clear, practical way to read the signals so you can time your move and negotiate with confidence. In this guide, you’ll learn the key metrics that shape the Poipu market and how to interpret them the right way for this unique area. Let’s dive in.
Why Poipu data reads differently
Poipu sits within Koloa on Kauai’s South Shore, where oceanfront estates, resort condos, and second homes shape supply and demand. Inventory is small, transaction counts are thin, and luxury listings add wide price dispersion. Seasonal visitor patterns and short-term rental activity also influence how fast properties move and how close they sell to list price.
The takeaway: standard big-city rules of thumb do not always fit here. Segment the data by property type and price band, use medians rather than averages, and look at rolling trends to reduce noise.
Inventory and months of supply
What it measures
- Inventory is the number of active listings at a moment in time.
- Months of supply equals Active Listings divided by Average Monthly Sales. A stable method uses the trailing 12 months of sales: Active Listings ÷ (Sales in past 12 months ÷ 12).
How to calculate for Poipu
- Pull active listings and closed sales for Poipu/Koloa from the local MLS.
- Segment by property type and price band (for example, under $1M, $1–2M, $2M+).
- Use a 12‑month rolling view to smooth seasonality.
How to read it locally
- Typical thresholds are a starting point: under 4 months can favor sellers, 4–6 months is often balanced, and over 6 can favor buyers. In Poipu, adjust these thresholds because seasonality and second‑home demand can shift the balance.
- Low inventory can still produce bidding if sought‑after listings are scarce, such as STR‑capable condos or ocean‑view homes.
- Watch the mix. A surge of resort condos in inventory will affect competition differently than new single‑family listings.
Using inventory in your plan
- Buyers: If months of supply is tight in your segment, prepare fast decision timelines, solid pre‑approval or proof of funds, and clean terms.
- Sellers: If supply is low, strategic pricing and standout marketing can compress days on market and lift your list‑to‑sale ratio.
Days on market (DOM)
What it measures
- DOM is the number of days from list to accepted contract. Some MLS fields track cumulative days across relists, while others reset. Know which field you are using.
Best practices for Poipu
- Use median DOM to reduce distortion from outliers.
- Where possible, rely on original list date so relists don’t inflate numbers.
- Track both median DOM for sold listings and current DOM for active listings. Combine 3–6 month medians with 12‑month trends to balance recency with seasonality.
Local nuances
- Luxury and vacation‑rental inventory often sits longer even in an active market.
- DOM may dip during peak visitor seasons and drift up during slower travel months.
Quick DOM checklist
- Are there relists? Use the original list date.
- Is the segment small? Prefer medians and rolling windows.
- Are luxury outliers skewing the chart? Segment by property type and price band.
Price per square foot ($/sq ft)
How to use it
- Calculate as Sale Price ÷ Finished Living Area. Keep the definition of living area consistent with records.
- Rely on median $/sq ft by property type and sub‑neighborhood. Consider quartiles when possible to show spread.
Poipu specifics
- Do not compare condos to single‑family homes without adjustments. Oceanfront versus inland also creates wide gaps.
- Condition, updates, and outdoor living spaces can change perceived value, especially in older buildings.
- For condos, supplement with price per bedroom or price per unit for additional context.
Turning $/sq ft into action
- Buyers: Compare like‑for‑like within the same complex or a direct peer set. Use $/sq ft as a starting point, then adjust for view, renovation quality, and rental performance.
- Sellers: If your segment’s $/sq ft trend is rising with recent comps, consider modest list price increases and spotlight turnkey condition and income potential.
List‑to‑sale ratios
What it measures
- The list‑to‑sale ratio is Sale Price ÷ List Price, expressed as a percentage. Track both Sale ÷ Original List and Sale ÷ Final List (after reductions).
How to track it here
- Use median ratios and report the share of listings with price reductions.
- Monitor seasonality by comparing ratios across quarters or rolling windows.
How to interpret
- Over 100 percent can signal multiple offers or underpricing for the moment. Mid‑to‑high 90s often point to a seller‑leaning environment, while materially below 95 can suggest buyer leverage. Adjust these ranges for Poipu’s luxury bias and over‑listing tendencies on premium homes.
Signals to watch
- Rising ratios with stable DOM can indicate tightening conditions.
- Falling ratios plus rising DOM can flag negotiation room or a timing mismatch for a specific segment.
Where to find reliable local data
- Kauai Board of REALTORS MLS: most complete source for active listings, list histories, DOM, and closed sales.
- Kauai County real property records: living area, lot size, ownership history, and deed filings.
- Hawaii Association of REALTORS and county‑level market summaries: context and comparisons.
- National providers can add high‑level trends but are less granular for Poipu.
Analysis practices that keep you accurate
- Prefer medians to reduce the impact of luxury outliers.
- Use 12‑month rolling series for prices and months of supply; 3–6 month medians for DOM to catch near‑term shifts.
- Segment by property type, price band, and coastal Poipu versus inland Koloa.
- Filter relists and remove non‑arm’s‑length transfers from trend metrics.
- If a slice has fewer than about a dozen annual sales, widen the time window and avoid over‑confident conclusions.
Timing and seasonality in Poipu
Demand often peaks in winter and around travel holidays. Listing into high‑demand windows can help DOM and list‑to‑sale ratios. Summer can be slower, which may create more negotiation room for buyers, though there can also be fewer on‑island shoppers.
For sellers, aligning your launch with peak interest and pairing it with high‑quality visuals and staging can speed results. For buyers, monitoring accumulation of off‑season inventory can surface motivated opportunities.
Strategy playbooks
If you’re buying in Poipu/Koloa
- Prepare early: line up proof of funds or pre‑approval and review comps by property type and sub‑neighborhood.
- Watch the segments: track months of supply for your exact niche, such as STR‑capable 2‑bedroom condos or ocean‑view single‑family homes.
- Use list‑to‑sale ratios as a temperature check. Consider escalation clauses in tight segments but set firm walk‑away limits.
- Look for price‑reduction patterns and elevated DOM in your target complex or neighborhood.
If you’re selling in Poipu/Koloa
- Match timing to demand peaks when possible. Pair launch with professional photography, staging, and targeted marketing.
- Price to the segment using recent 6–12 month comps and rolling medians. Slightly underpricing in low‑supply niches can attract multiple offers.
- Track inquiries and showing feedback. If DOM rises while peers go pending, recheck price and exposure to out‑of‑area buyers.
- If your property is STR‑capable, present occupancy history and gross rental income to reach the investor buyer pool.
Move forward with a local expert
Poipu’s metrics are powerful when you apply them with the right filters. With small sample sizes, resort‑driven seasonality, and wide price dispersion, you gain an edge by segmenting the data, using medians, and timing your move to the market’s rhythm. If you want a clear picture tailored to your property or search, connect with a local advisor who pairs decades of South Shore experience with white‑glove prep, staging, and developer‑grade marketing. Contact Brenda Crawford for a private Poipu market consultation.
FAQs
What does months of supply mean in Poipu?
- It is active listings divided by average monthly sales. In Poipu, read it by property type and use a 12‑month rolling view to account for seasonality and small samples.
How should I use DOM for Poipu condos?
- Focus on median DOM for sold units, compare within the same complex or peers, and use original list dates to avoid relist distortions.
Is price per square foot reliable in Koloa/Poipu?
- Yes when comparing like‑with‑like. Separate condos from single‑family homes and oceanfront from inland; use medians and supplement with price per bedroom for condos.
What does a high list‑to‑sale ratio mean here?
- Ratios near or above 100 percent often signal competition in that segment. Adjust expectations for luxury properties, which can list ambitiously and still close below list.
Where can I find accurate Poipu market data?
- Start with the Kauai Board of REALTORS MLS for listings and sales, and use Kauai County property records for confirmation of living area and recorded transfers.
